The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has projected that the country’s GDP could reach an estimated $450 billion by the end of 2025 if there is no major disruption in the economy.
This projection was made yesterday by economist and founder of CPPE, Dr. Muda Yusuf, in a press release titled “CPPE Statement on Nigeria’s GDP Re-basing, Q1 2025 GDP Report, and Sectoral Analysis.”
The CPPE also argued that future re-basing exercises should be conducted more regularly and in a timely manner, in line with global standards in order to maintain the relevance and credibility of Nigeria’s economic data.
Yusuf said: “According to the newly rebased figures, Nigeria’s nominal GDP was reported at ₦372.82 trillion as of 2024, representing a 41 per cent increase over the 2019 nominal GDP”.
The economy recorded a growth rate of 3.38 per cent in 2024.
In Q1 2025, GDP growth moderated slightly to 3.13 per cent, with total output for the quarter at ₦94 trillion. “This brings Nigeria’s cumulative GDP at the end of Q1 2025 to approximately ₦466 trillion, or an estimated $300 billion.
“As the Nigerian economy progressively recovers from the shocks of the current economic reforms, the CPPE projects that by year-end Nigeria’s GDP could reach an estimated $450 billion barring any major disruption in the economy”.
He said it is important to note that economic activities in the first quarter were typically subdued compared to the other quarters, which may account for the observed moderation in Q1 GDP growth.
Commenting on the rebased GDP, the CPPE said that welcomed the recent release by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of the rebased Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, now anchored to a new base year of 2019.
“This re-basing exercise represents a significant milestone in Nigeria’s economic management, as it enhances the relevance, accuracy, and timeliness of national economic data, and aligns Nigeria’s statistical reporting with international best practices. GDP re-basing is a critical statistical exercise that updates the base year used for calculating national output, ensuring that the structure of the economy is accurately reflected in line with current realities”.
By adopting 2019 as the new base year, Nigeria’s GDP figures now incorporate recent changes in consumption patterns, production technologies, and sectoral dynamics. This provides a more realistic and comprehensive picture of the economy, which is essential for effective policy formulation, planning, and investment decisions”.
Yusuf said that key value propositions of re-basing an economy include improved investment and planning decisions, enhanced macroeconomic analysis, international comparability and credible sectoral insight.
“The availability of more current and robust data enables both public and private sector stakeholders to make better-informed decisions. Investors, policymakers, and development partners can now rely on more accurate statistics to assess opportunities and risks”.
“The re-basing allows for more credible calculation of key GDP-related ratios, such as debt-to-GDP, tax-to-GDP, revenue-to-GDP, credit-to-GDP, and fiscal deficit-to-GDP. “These ratios are vital for assessing the health and sustainability of the economy, and for benchmarking Nigeria’s performance against global peers”.
The updated GDP figures facilitate more meaningful international comparisons, providing clearer guidance for foreign investors and supporting Nigeria’s integration into the global economy. This transparency is expected to boost investor confidence and attract foreign direct investment.
The re-basing exercise has improved the accuracy of sectoral contributions, revealing shifts in the economic landscape and highlighting emerging sectors that were previously underrepresented.”
